So your thoughts are we will have a stronger ridge this season that may drive systems westward?

Yes that would be correct as to what I was discussing. Although, it should also be pointed out that having stronger ridging does not necessarily mean there won't be a recurve conduit because particulars regarding the planetary wave spacing (Long waves). If the stronger subtropical ridge in the means idea works out, however, it does slope that probability in favor of longer westerly trackers.

That aspect of the season is a ways off climatologically, though. For now we need to first focus on the western Caribbean up throught the Gulf and the waters surrounding Florida as we get into June/early July. It is interesting that the models have been spining up these suspicious entities in that region already - almost succeeding actually in getting one to verify as HankFrank pointed out.

We like to shy away from too much speculation here. It is safe to mention however that this kind of persistence in the modeling behavior suggests that they are picking up on some kind of numerical instability, though. That should be significant to warrant some interest as the climatology nears.

John