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Things look pretty interesting for late May down in the Southwest Caribbean...looks like a mid-level circulation has spun up with intermittent deep convection in place; QuikSCAT from yesterday evening even hinted at a weak low level circulation underneath the mid-level feature and the convection. Nice evacuation channel at upper levels into the central Atlantic in association with a weak upper low near the Bahamas and a trough to its northeast. Probably our next "invest" -- NHC's satellite page hints at that already on floater 3, in fact -- over the next day or so. Most of the models hint at something heading in a general NW fashion over the next 3-5 days or so into the NW Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico, with the NAM and the ECMWF being the most bullish at this point. The projected weather patten into late next week is of a trough digging into the eastern United States; if that pans out, the system will generally want to head north and ultimately northeast. How fast something organizes down there -- if it does at all -- will help decide where it ultimately goes and potentially how fast it recurves. People in Florida and inland Georgia should watch this over the next few days, as even if nothing tropical organizes...it looks like it could bring some much needed rains. |