Morning everyone,
nice blowup on the ULL this morning again.. though this time, it could stick for a while as the storm that models are forcasting is now starting to develop. CMC does an Alberto type system and head it just north of tampa as a strong TS or cat. 1 Hurricane according to the pressures. UKMET has a weak/moderate storm crossing central Florida then becomes a strong TS moving up the east coast. GFS finally recongizes storm development instead of just moisture and has it in the Gulf pointing towards Florida. NOGAPS has a fairly weak system 35-40 mph hitting right around where Charley hit and then strengthens it to a stronger storm going up the east coast.
.. Anyways.. looking at the model runs, there are about 3 scenarios in my case.
1. Storm developes rapidly into a strong TS and hits Florida hrd with heavy rain with winds from 50-65 mph.
2. Storm developes slowly and hits Florida with heavy rain yet winds are 35-45 mph., then becomes a stronger TS as it gets into the Gulf Stream with winds increasing to 50-60 mph.
3. The storm develops but as a non-tropical system and Florida just gets alot of rain with some gusty winds.
.. So which scenario do you think will play out?