(Weather Master)
Wed May 30 2007 09:18 AM
Re: New Area to Watch ???

Morning everyone,
nice blowup on the ULL this morning again.. though this time, it could stick for a while as the storm that models are forcasting is now starting to develop. CMC does an Alberto type system and head it just north of tampa as a strong TS or cat. 1 Hurricane according to the pressures. UKMET has a weak/moderate storm crossing central Florida then becomes a strong TS moving up the east coast. GFS finally recongizes storm development instead of just moisture and has it in the Gulf pointing towards Florida. NOGAPS has a fairly weak system 35-40 mph hitting right around where Charley hit and then strengthens it to a stronger storm going up the east coast.
.. Anyways.. looking at the model runs, there are about 3 scenarios in my case.
1. Storm developes rapidly into a strong TS and hits Florida hrd with heavy rain with winds from 50-65 mph.
2. Storm developes slowly and hits Florida with heavy rain yet winds are 35-45 mph., then becomes a stronger TS as it gets into the Gulf Stream with winds increasing to 50-60 mph.
3. The storm develops but as a non-tropical system and Florida just gets alot of rain with some gusty winds.
.. So which scenario do you think will play out?

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center