(Weather Guru)
Wed May 30 2007 03:19 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch

"Thursday night-Sat...significant change in the pattern is expected as the
ridge in the western Atlantic breaks down Thursday night-Fri.
Meanwhile...broad cyclonic flow in the western Gulf will draw
tropical moisture northward towards the state...ultimately resulting
in increasing rain changes late this week and early this weekend.
NAM-WRF suggests an area of low pressure north of the Yucatan will
lift northward through the Gulf...which would produce beneficial
rainfall across the forecast area. However...recent trends in the
GFS indicate that a track further to the south and east is more
likely. This would keep the deep tropical moisture to our
south...with only scattered shower activity Friday and Sat as a wave of
low pressure tracks across the southern peninsula. It would not be
fair to totally rule out a wetter solution at this point as depicted
by HPC and the European model (ecmwf)...which takes the low across The Big Bend and
northeastward up the southeast coast. Given the anomalous nature of
the pattern along with the fact that the event is still a few days
out...plan at this point is to only nudge probability of precipitation up slightly from
previous forecast."...........

(I'll repeat this request one more time: If you quote an official source, please STATE THE SOURCE in your post. In this case I believe its the NWS MLB Forecast Discussion bulletin.)

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