scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Thu May 31 2007 10:41 AM
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season

Right now...its a 1006mb broad surface low. Winds near the center are pretty weak..only about 5-15mph. 25kt winds are way away from the center near the T-Storms. Alot of the circulation isnt at the surface also.

The system does have the chance to become TD 2 or even our next TS...we will see if it continues to organize. CMC model usually is a throw out model..as is the Nam...but GFS has had some convective feedback problems of late. I tend to use a blend of the ECMWF and the Nogaps..(usually GFS).

Also a note...T-Storms will die off some today and refire later this evening..Tropical systems have a durational min during the mid day hours and max late at night. Kinda think of it as how its more humid at night then during the day. Now tonight we will see if the new storms that fire up will be close to the center. If so we might see a drop in pressure 3-4mb.



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