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HPC looks like they favor a track west of the GFS solution. From HPC morning discussion: HIGH UNCERTAINTY EVEN IN THE SHORT RANGE LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE EVOLUTION/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM FCST TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NWD ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BUT WITH CONTINUING TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z-06Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE ON EASTERN EDGE OF THE FCST ENVELOPE... WHILE THE CANADIAN IS AGAIN THE FAST/STRONG WESTERN OUTLIER. BLENDING THE ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS WITH THE NCEP MEAN (WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY TRACKED WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS SINCE THE 00Z WED RUNS) YIELDS AN INTERMEDIATE TRACK THAT IS SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AND SIMILAR TO THE HPC FCST OF THE PAST TWO DAYS. THE SLOW EAST MOVEMENT OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OUT OF THE OH VALLEY AND HIGH AMPLITUDE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A TRACK WEST OF THE GFS. |