Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Thu May 31 2007 10:53 AM
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season

HPC looks like they favor a track west of the GFS solution. From HPC morning discussion:

HIGH UNCERTAINTY EVEN IN THE SHORT RANGE LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THE EVOLUTION/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM FCST TO LIFT OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO NWD ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN
EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BUT WITH CONTINUING TIMING/TRACK
DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z-06Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE ON EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FCST ENVELOPE... WHILE THE CANADIAN IS AGAIN THE
FAST/STRONG WESTERN OUTLIER. BLENDING THE ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS
WITH THE NCEP MEAN (WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY TRACKED WEST OF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS SINCE THE 00Z WED RUNS) YIELDS AN
INTERMEDIATE TRACK THAT IS SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AND SIMILAR TO THE
HPC FCST OF THE PAST TWO DAYS. THE SLOW EAST MOVEMENT OF THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGH OUT OF THE OH VALLEY AND HIGH AMPLITUDE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A TRACK WEST OF THE GFS.



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