NWS Tampa Bay Afternoon Disc:

SHORT RANGE (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUMP
UP AGAINST THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON FUTURE TRACK OF THIS LOW. 12Z NAM TAKES IT
NORTH ALL THE WAY TO THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST
RAINS JUST OFFSHORE. WHEREAS GFS HAS IT EJECTING NORTHEAST QUICKLY
EARLY SATURDAY. PREFER ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON MOVEMENT OF FEATURES ALOFT...KICKING THE UPPER LOW OUT OF
THE GULF BY 00Z SUNDAY AND HAVING IT MERGE INTO A LARGER CUTOFF
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...STILL EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN...1-2 INCHES
IF NOT A LITTLE MORE...TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE BEST RAIN CHANCES THEN. SHOULD SEE
LIGHT RAINS WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS CIRRUS CANOPY BUILDS
DOWN...SO POPS WILL BE HIGH FRIDAY BUT WITH LOWER QPFS. SW FLORIDA
MAY GET THE EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE BUT BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE COULD
KEEP CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA DRIER FRIDAY.

WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY...WHEREAS MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-THU)...WILL GENERALLY LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF
TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CROSSING CENTRAL FL SAT NIGHT INTO
LATE SUN WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN SAT NIGHT ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN.