205pm update

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED 1006 MB...IS LOCATED
ABOUT 75 MI SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THIS LOW SITS ALONG AN
ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM NICARAGUA TO THE SRN
GULF. THIS LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS PRODUCING A BIG AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOSTLY ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOST ORGANIZED FROM 16N-23N
BETWEEN 79W-87W. KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME OF THIS
STRONGER ACTIVITY PULLING N INTO RADAR RANGE. THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO AND
FOR THAT REASON THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...MODELS SHOW THE LOW
TRACKING TO THE N/NE INTO A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHICH
WOULD FAVOR NON-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF WHAT
FORMS...TROPICAL OR NON-TROPICAL...ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR ACROSS WRN CUBA AND S FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.