I think what we are missing is the fact that this system isnt stacked up. We have a LLC just south of Cozumel...a midlevel center to its NE ..just south of the western tip of Cuba..and a upper ridge closer to Honduras and Jamaica. My basic quick reasoning is for this LLC to not develop much at all and head slowly north...while the midlevel center becomes better established and takes over and crosses Sw Florida from Ft Myers-Tampa Bay and develops further as a baroclonic low north of the bahamas.

I favor the 12z run of the GFS...along with and just north of the 12z GFDL... the current LLC will weaken later Friday into Saturday as the subtropical or baroclonic low forms Friday off the NW tip of Cuba and heads NNE.

This could be a subtropical storm off SW florida by later Friday night. Winds could still reach 50-60mph..but this wont be fully tropical.
scottsvb