typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 01 2007 05:57 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today

I am not completely convinced that what we are seeing out there is a pure tropical system.

Be that as it may...this was the one aspect we discussed yesterday and the day before, which could cause better development; we have seen that come to pass. The system begin a concerted NNE motion in such a way as to lower the impact of the westerly shear upon its vertical motion field (embedded convection). Shear is present however, despite this storm relative shear related reduction and that is why we see the majority of the convection displaced(ing) NE of the center -- it is being tipped and pulled NE of the center.

Note: The 12z ECM depicted tightly bounded cyclone nearing the bend area of the Gulf Coast of Florida. This was a new idea along the modeling history for this system, as most models maintained an amorpous broad bag of closed pressure pattern with more than one sub-vortices contained; then consolidating later on into an East Coast system. That latter behavior is in tact as expecation still goes, but, this subtle suggestion prior to Gulf Coastal landfall, by the ECM, just got a confidence boost for seeing this surprise jump to TS status. As long as the system keeps moving along with the deeper layer westerlies the way it is, it has a chance -- albeit lower rather than higher -- at developing a bit more.

It is important to note that 67kt at flight level extrapolates (usually) to around 50mph at the surface, which is just getting interesting as far as being more than just a breezy day.
-- Flood preparedness
-- Tornado awareness
-- Basic essentials for power failure
are the big three for Barry. Other than some beach erosion, surge will fairly low impact. Wind will be gusty near the core and where heavier convective elements transfer some of that flight level momentum into the boundary layer. Otherwise, not a very big concern there either.

Barry will be interesting once it crosses Florida and interact with the dynamics of a trough amplification. It should be well involved with cyclone phase transition at that time.

John



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