| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jun 02 2007 12:07 AM |
Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico
|
Quote:
But, alas! The deep convection finally did flare up, and despite the shear, began wrapping around the center, and with each passing visible pic added to the loop, it became apparent that cyclogenesis was unfolding before our eyes!
I too, eat crow. It just goes to show, folks, that with all our computer models, all the advanced analysis tools and the elaborate, 'high-brow' postings from our many very knowledgable members to this forum, that good 'ol Mother Nature has the final say and, often, she throws a curve ball just when we were expecting the slider.
Well... I was among those who thought the same thing you did, until this afternoon. Now, I'm beginning to return to that camp, based upon the last several AVN images. While Barry was very much tropical in structure at the time of the 5pm advisory, I think it's already losing its tropical characteristics, due to shear and the rapid movement.
Edit: I just loaded the visible loop, which shows the LLC in the overnight IR, and I was completely wrong about the movement. It looks as if the LLC actually isn't moving much... maybe drifting due east... but the shear has pulled Barry apart.