Well, Barry is looking mighty pathetic tonight. Maybe I bit the bullet a little too soon with my commentary on the models earlier? Not sure. Anyway, it looks like the upper low in the Gulf has decided to move east after all, which is slowly pushing the storm in that direction as well. The general flow is out of the south, but the overall progression of the entire mess to the east is sending the storm on a NE path right now.

As a result, I've gotta back off of my Big Bend/W Cent Florida idea and come down to the Tampa region landfall-wise. This is due to a lack of vertical coherence plus a bit more of an impetus to the upper low to move east. Complicating factors could come if the center does reform closer to the convection, which is still headed for the Big Bend/Cedar Key area, but I don't know how likely that is right now. Hopefully the diurnal convective max gives us some ideas.