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does everybody else's forum page have all the posters titled 'no matter' and the graveyard emblem next to it? something broke, looks like. unless it's just me. horizon looks fairly empty. the models are wishy-washy on how the ingredients will mesh early next week near the sw caribbean. dependent on which run and which model, there looks to be decent surface convergence, a slackening of the trades, and upper ridging induced by an upper trough digging near cuba and perhaps snapping. not a whole lot of consensus and it looks like a real long-shot. big upper trough cutting off the east coast next week will likely have its dynamics too far north to induce one of those spin-down hybrids. long-range modeling is tipping back and forth over the 500-mb pattern near north america, so can't really say whether we'll see another amplified-jumble pattern like the ones that have caused our first two (hybrid) tropical cyclones this season. don't expect anything if we get into a progressive zonal pattern. HF 2358z06june (Thanks for the heads-up. Problem has been fixed.) |