Both the NAM & GFS are developing a weak low pressure near the Bahamas. Is this the next tropical system to watch? Big blow-up of convection in the Bahamas today with some cc turning on VIS SAT. NWS Tampa Bay discusses it below.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST...AS THE RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. BROAD SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRIES TO FORM ON THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE BAHAMAS. MODELS TAKE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FA WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
CENTRAL AREAS...AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IN AREA OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NORTHERN FA AS DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT OVER THAT REGION.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR CLIMO ON FRIDAY...BUT
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. AREAL COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FA SATURDAY
IS UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ENERGY/ORGANIZATION REMAINS
WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. ATTM...WILL TREND POPS SLIGHTLY
LOWER WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN POOR MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY. NAMELY...GFS AND NAM...WHICH ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP A
WAVE OF LOW PRES IN VCNTY OF THE BAHAMAS EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND...
DRIFT IT WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING ON WHERE THIS WAVE WILL BE DRIFTING
AND WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PCPN WOULD OCCUR.