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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 232 PM EDT THU JUN 07 2007 IN A REVERSAL TO PREVIOUS RUN...THE GFS AND REGIONAL NAM MODELS NOW DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA. AT 60-72 HRS THEY FORECAST THIS LOW TO MIGRATE SOUTH TO WESTERN CUBA. THE LOW WILL SUSTAIN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...WITH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/GULF OF HONDURAS BY 48-72 HRS. THIS FEATURE WILL SUSTAIN AN AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND WESTERN-CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH 42-48 HRS...WHERE IT WILL FAVOR RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WITH MOST INTENSE ACROSS BIMINI-GRAND BAHAMA AND GREAT ABACO. ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA IT WILL FAVOR K INDEX VALUES OF 32-36...AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. FURTHERMORE...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER CUBA.. |