1000 AM EDT THU 14 JUN 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z JUNE 2007

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
A. 15/1800Z

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

I think the take-away is really this:
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

Some perspective, perhaps -

The fact of the matter is a low-level to surface trof has been in the western Caribbean in one form or another for a few days now. Recently, a surface low center has developed in the extreme northwestern Caribbean - just about where GFDL and CMC expected it to. Both of those models forecast a warm-core depression, perhaps a weak TS.

If one was to give equal weight to all of the most often cited models, there would be an expectation of a 1 in 4 chance of a TC forming in that general area by the end of this weekend, or so. Given the big picture, and that backdrop, NHC certainly is keeping an eye on this. However, as they state, upper-level winds are not favorable for development. This is not to say that something doesn't pop. It does suggest that anything which tries to get going, as is indeed the case, will have an unusually difficult time pulling it off.

Edited for clarity-

Simply because a feature has a less than an ideal environment in which to "pull it off" does not mean that recon won't fly in, especially when such a suspect area is precariously close to potential landfall(s). Additionally, even if such a feature which may develop may not do so for a few more days going out, it -could- do so sooner rather than later, although a slower progression (if any) under conditions like these seems more plausible.