danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Jun 29 2007 04:41 AM
Weather Discussions-excerpts

I apologize for the length of this post. These excerpts appear to cover both the short term and extended forecasts.
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
302 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007


VALID 00Z FRI JUN 29 2007 - 12Z SAT JUN 30 2007

...TO THE SOUTH... A COLD LOW INTERACTING WITH THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL INITIALLY DRIFT WEST AND THEN LINGER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREDIBLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
FLOW COUPLED WITH ENHANCED INSTABILITY RELATED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRIGGER MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.... WITH THE HEAVIEST LIKELY FALLING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH BY EARLY SATURDAY.
Short Term Forecasts

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
605 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 29/0000 UTC THRU JUL 02/0000 UTC
DAY 1 (SATURDAY)
...FL...
EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THRU FL HAS USHERED IN A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL AIRMASS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RW/TRW (SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS) THRU THE PERIOD. PWS (PRECIPTABLE WATER~available moisture) OVER THE REGION ARE INCREASING TO GREATER THAN TWO INCHES WITH DEEP LAYERED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT
SHOULD TEND TO FOCUS THE BETTER LIFT ALONG THE (FLORIDA) EAST COAST. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN 8H (850mb height-5000ft-mid level)LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL FL. IF THIS OCCURS THE LO LEVEL CONVERGANCE WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE CONVERGANCE WILL BE STRONGEST. LOCALLY 2-3 INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE.

DAY 2 (SUNDAY)
FL...
THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH ITS VERY SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT TO THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS... CMC... GEM... UKMET AND 0000 UTC ECMWF ALL FAVOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE NEWD MOVEMENT TO ANY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY BE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THIS SYSTEM... MOSTLY OFF THE NORTHERN FL COAST. THERE MAY...HOWEVER...BE SOME PRECIPITATION OVR NORTHEASTERN FL... WITH THE HEAVIER GFS FAVORED AS THE SLOWER NAM DOES NOT SHOW
ANY PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN FL.
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Discussion

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
237 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007


DISCUSSION FROM JUN 28/0000 UTC. THE ANALYSIS OF THE 200 HPA (upper level) VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DIVERGENCE ACROSS INDIA/ SOUTHEAST ASIA... WHICH WE EXPECT TO RELOCATE ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC TO CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN TO TEN DAYS. ONCE IN-PLACE...THIS IS TO REMAIN OVER THE BASIN FOR 14-21 DAYS. THE UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA/ EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO ERODE...AND WE EXPECT BETTER CONDITIONS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO THE WEEKEND.
Caribbean Forecast Discussion



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