According to NOAA a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forming up in the pacific. An MJO is a short-term reversal of trade winds in an area. This occurrence works its way around the globe on periodic time scales. Studies have shown that when this phenomenon reaches the East Pacific that it can enhance tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The current Madden-Julian Oscillation should be reaching the eastern Pacific around the middle of July. So any changes in upper-level wind patterns at that time that would allow for a better chance of tropical storm development. Those tropical waves can have a better chance of development as we move into mid and late July.