Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Jul 02 2007 09:19 PM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet

I'll chime in with some thoughts on that thing in the central Atlantic as well.

I am *kinda* intrigued by the low in the central Atlantic. It's the most interesting thing out there since Barry, to me at least, but I still don't give it much of a shot in the short-term. It's one of those things where if you saw it come August, the alarms would be going off and everyone everywhere would be talking about it, but being the start of July it only merits a passing mention. The environment is just too stable out there right now, largely driven by fairly cool SSTs and ENEly wind surges around the subtropical ridge near the Azores. (This plot shows the end result fairly well.)

However, things improve as it nears the Lesser Antilles -- waters get warmer, the atmosphere becomes more unstable, and there's not a whole lot of shear to speak of right now. If it can hold together another 4-5 days or so, it could get interesting. We are slowly transitioning into that time of year where when things look interesting in the central Atlantic, they can pose problems (re: potential development) further west several days later.

Not really intrigued by the stuff hanging around the southeast coast. If it sat for 5 days and had something to organize around, like a mid-level vortex from some daytime convection dropping into the open waters, it might get intriguing...but if the central Atlantic feature is a 2 out of 10 on the development scale for the next three days, this is a 0.5.

If neither get going -- we could be waiting a couple of weeks into July. Others who know a lot more about intraseasonal and long-range tropical forecasting than I do suggest that things should start to get somewhat favorable basin-wide in about three weeks -- moreso than climatology alone would suggest, at least -- so if nothing develops in the short-term, I say enjoy the respite as things could ramp up fairly quickly on down the line.



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