dem05
(User)
Tue Jul 03 2007 05:04 AM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet

Edit to first paragraph: Hi Hunter...Saw you posted while I was typing. We have 96L now, my first paragraph is somewhat "moot" now. Good catch!

FYI...the invest has been up for quite some time now on the mid-Atlantic feature. From best I can tell you, since about 8 pm "ish". I had dinner with the family, so it may have been up longer than that. Since a TWO has come out since the posting of the feature as an invest on the satellite page, I do not expect significant changes in in the invest catgorization (number assignment) and/or 5:30AM TWO unless there is continued progress in organization and/or a status quo in organization. Like other Invests we have seen this year, it apparently has peaked some interests inthe Meteorology community, but it is not enough yet to merit an invest number (i.e. 96L).

The area has undoubtably been battling the stability situation with a level of tennacity and my belief is that it has continued to organize further somewhat. The formation of a Tropical Depression from this while it is out there is not impossible. However, I highly agree with Clark's synopsis also and a system this far out is also a little beyond climo expectations for development. It gets a better shot closer to the leewards in 5 days if it sustains itself, but 5 days is a very long time and a lot can happen (including the idea that this wave could go POOF!). So I'd keep an eye on something possibly happenning with it days +3-+5 (with no guarantees of development). If it does manage to develop before then...track it, but keep in mind that development out there is some what of an anomoly. From a scientific view of anomolies, such events may not be reflective of the rest of the season's activity. Mean time, have fun watching the satellite loops!




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