cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 03 2007 02:01 AM
Re: Wave nearing 40W Longitude

Whatever can be said about its lack of chances, this is an impressive feature for this far out in the Atlantic this early in a season To put it plainly, this little one looks better to me than 95L and the curiosity I tracked for 12 hours or so a few days ago (the one to the SE of Bermuda) .. combined .. but not by much. Nor were those other two features anything to crow about, to begin with.

Still, now official 96L, currently centered near 9.5N and 38W as I type, is possibly about to enter a region of much-diminished shear (LINK) . This might bring up two possible scenarios as a result:
Scenario A) The low to moderate shear has helped flame the convection in an otherwise dry and stable environment, making some kind of FeS2-based concoction of what is really a benign 96L.. and as a result, the low shear environment merely exposes the Low for what it is: A weak low trying to make its way through a mostly dry, stable environment.
Scenario B) The low to moderate shear may or may not have helped fan the convection of 96L, but the Low itself is a little better-off than Scenario A would suggest. Entering the low shear region ahead leads to a marginally-favorable window for some "real" intensification, even tho this goes against the climo grain.

Given the structure of the surface or near-surface low, and the relatively juicy environ immediately encircling it, my guess is that Scenario A is not the more likely one. However, what I think might be more the impediment for 96L is the dry air just to its north and northwest, not to mention there's still likely to be lots and lots of killer SAL floating around north of 10N by the time it crosses that latitude, to be even more specific. (LINK).



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center