cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Jul 05 2007 05:23 AM
Re: 96L Dead??

These little flareups - sort of gives new meaning to *pulse* convection

Quick observations - dry air is now -really- beginning to fill in around the Low on just about all sides but the south, with more dry air than any one cyclone could choke on north of 11N between roughly 37W and the longitude of the Invest. But worse yet for it.. the dry air now sinks all the way down to about the equator in its path immediately ahead. This alone makes the environment simply inhospitable for anything but slow development, at best. (Link)

Now introduce increasing wind shear, also just up ahead .. now approaching greater than 30 knots in spots.. and still rising (Link).

At a forward speed of roughly 12 knots, give or take, 96L may have another day and a half of marginally favorable environmental conditions (and that may be describing them generously) to pull something "significant" off - in the near term - However, given the tenacity of the Low, this may not be entirely comforting if it should somehow retain some semblance of itself, miss the opportunity to deflect, only to find a sweet spot somewhere else sometime in the future, and closer to the point of a land-lock somewhere. Given the current steering pattern, that possibility might be of some future concern for locations from Central America to Louisiana.

Fortunately, given the climatology for this point in the season, the number of ULLs still diving down into and TUTTs forming in the GOM and Caribbean, the above situation does not seem very likely. But, it's probably one to keep in mind for however long the Invest is out there in some recognizable form and stature.


1AM Edit (1 AM Central time folks)
I'm actually starting to think my hat might be off to 96L overnight.



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