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In general, 96L is definately going through another pulse. Saw one late last night yesterday and another that was several hours earlier yesterday afternoon. I'm a little hesitant to say this is a development trend since these occurances happened yesterday. Wouldwanttogetmyfingers chomped bymother nature! LOL. With that said, it is interesting to note that thunderstorms are buliding on the north and west sides of the circulation...as well as the south side...this is a first in the last 48 hours and the wind structure of 96L remains symentrical. If the storms do not go poof, then we are onto some possible additional development. Water Vapor, yes..lots of dry air is a continueing challenge, but this evenings loops do suggest that the atmosphere ahead of the systemis moistening up somewhat, and the area ahead of the system is approaching the current moisture levels of the evironment around 96L. WIll be interested to see if the moisture builds up a bit more ahead of 96L. On a final note, the shear producing upper level low, which was referenced in the NOON CFHC Update at 14Nand 60W, which is the area that would threaten to produce shear in about two days...has not decided to move north as the model shave suggested...instead, it is currently moving west. If this continues, this shear may Cieldumort has shown us may stay out ahead of the system and 96L environment beyond two days may not be that hostile afterall. But Cieldumort is right, the shear as shown in his map is currently increasing ahead of the system. If the Upper Low pauses in it's westerly track, or the shear zone does not progress westward ahead of the system...this will be a development show stopper. I know that I will be very curious to see if the westward movement (versus Northerly movement) of the ULL persists. This could be very important to any possible future development (Day 2 andbeyond). Water Vapor Link of the Central Atlantic: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html |