there it goes again, popping off more convection this evening. the system has gradually lost convection, re-firing more (but a little bit less every time) steadily over the last couple of days. tonight it may have reversed that slightly. the tight vortex tracking just north of due west along 11n is just as easy to pick out as ever. there does appear to be more vertical shear than before, but perhaps the environment is becoming a bit more moist and unstable. the balance of odds is still against, but that little low-level swirl has kept intact fairly well (i'd attribute most of that to it not racing along at breakneck speed--it's stayed around 15mph). that is the sort of feature that would be a tropical cyclone if you tossed a good flareup of deep convection over it for a 12hr period. as things stand that still probably won't happen. it just isn't gone yet.
the nhc is finally mentioning the mess near florida. that sort of thing would be raising all sorts of eyebrows were it over water and threatening the coast.. but it's over land and likely to drift off. a good supply of shortwave energy passing to the north over the next few days should act to work it offshore and out. there's enough shear that development remains unlikely.
long range modeling showing the ridging in the atlantic building further westward, and with the arrival of the mjo wave later this month a strong possibility i'd reckon we'll see some development before too much time passes.
HF 2353z05july