as ed mentioned in the his short update today--the action is still a basin over. the long range gfs isn't showing anything to write home about on our side of the pond, still. they've obviously tweaked its algorithm for the parameters that govern tropical cyclogenesis... the gung-ho, every wave a storm gfs we've seen at times isn't on the job right now. until the storms show up again we won't know whether it's prognosticating better or just blinded. might be the former, ya know.
even without faith anything will happen, might be interesting to see what our erstwhile texas system does when it drifts off the southeast coast. the weak non-tropical low with the slightly frontal appearance that has been drifting eastward since leaving texas to dry out late last week is now over east-central alabama, meandering east. it's sort of like the july version of one of those winter-time storms that teases my neck of the woods with frozen precip, only about 40-50 degrees too warm. be funny if it reformed offshore like shortwave energy jumping from a mature frontal low to the triple point or a coastal lee trough. it ought to be over the atlantic coastal plain this time tomorrow. i vote it freak of the week.
stuff is trying to go in the pacific right now. big typhoon in the works east of the phillipines (12z euro had it smashing into kyushu next weekend as a big-ol mutha). closer in there are a couple/three things in the eastpac trying to fester. mjo doesn't always move in a neat, orderly wave and cause things to happen in our basin after tripping off the pacific, but more often than not it does have an effect. over the next week we ought to see the atlantic look more lively. maybe we'll get something by next weekend or later.
HF 2025z08july