Update Friday 7/27... things are starting to perk up in the Eastern Atlantic with a well-defined tropical wave exiting the coast of Africa this evening. Model guidance suggests that the tropical Atlantic will become increasingly active as the upcoming week wears on.

Clark has posted a new blog on these developments and the tropical forecasting process; see it below on the main page or in the Blogs.

Update Sunday 7/23... Invest 97L has been issued but I think it's future is a non-event for most. Maybe a start for a so far slow season...

Original Post... Most of the Atlantic basin still remains quiet, however, a large but disorganized tropical wave has slowly increased in convective activity over the past couple of days in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Earlier today (19/20Z) a weak - and probably transient - mid-level circulation center was evident near 12N 66W. Movement to the west northwest at 10-12 knots - and that general movement is expected to continue for the next few days.

The wave, currently under light shear, will encounter some moderate westerly shear for the next day or two, so I wouldn't expect any significant near-term development. Over the weekend, as the system moves away from the shear zone, the wave has a better chance for some organization. SSTs in the central Caribbean Sea are about 28C. Something to watch over the next few days.

In the Central Pacific, Tropical Depression Cosme may well regain Tropical Storm intensity and pass just south of the main Hawaiian Islands on Saturday. You can follow CoconutCandy's excellent commentary on this system in the Other Storm Basins Forum.

Finally, a reminder that discussions based on long-range model projections belong in the Forecast Lounge rather than the Main Page thread.
ED

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