When my original posting was done there had just recently been a TPC statement released regarding southerly winds along the lower Leewards; suggesting at least a weakly closed surface circulation was evolving in the vicinity of the NE Caribbean. That, combined with the transiently impressive satellite presentation, and some favorable U/A conditions, is what prompted that optimism.

However, soon after making that post, I did my own analysis of the NE Caribbean and despite the TPC statement, I could not close off a circulation.

Lesson learned: Do own analysis first...so as not to be beguiled by other sources, because you take risk of drawing a false conclusion. [I think this was just a bad luck of sorts, though]

The problem is, you really have to close off a circulation of some kind before an Invest run can be made. The wind and pressure pattern may have hinted earlier in the evening, but by later on it was pretty non-descript and disorganized in that area.

Now, ...now that this wave splitting has taken place, we are in a new paradigm of sorts. What ever happens from here on out should be taken as analysis, anew. Whatever is left of the TW ...it is moving away from the upper level anticyclone and into a bit of WSW shear/jet channeling on the south side of the TUTT axis. This is not optimal for development -- although as noted by TPC, conditions could improve in a day or so. Not seeing an Invest out of this for the time being, though.

We'll see... otherwise, back to watching.