NRL has hoisted a TCFA for 98L

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30.0N 73.5W
TO 34.6N 70.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.

2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NORTHEAST OF NASSAU,
BS HAS FORMED UNDERNEATH VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
30.0N 73.5W WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1013.0 MB.
WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS
BEING PLACED 60NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER,
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA CAN ENHANCE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 301600Z JULY 2007.//
(LINK)

It is a bit odd that the 98L floater has been removed in light of everything else. (For now). The system appears to be slowly organizing -very- slowly, with two baby steps forward and one or one and a half baby step/s back. The combination of still difficult shear imparted mainly from the ULL to its northeast, and extratropical interaction with a preexisting trough seem to be hindering anything more at this time. 98L has a good 400 - 500 miles of acceptable SSTs ahead for possible subtropical and/or tropical development, and not an impossible atmosphere to work with.