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As of Midnight Eastern time, 99L is beginning to look more like a tropical system. Newly formed, over the last 4 hours, CDO-type central convective area. Quite a bit more lightning than 4 hours ago, when there wasn't any visible in the sat imagery. Dvorak loop indicating cloud top temperatures colder than -70C. Using the coldest IR temperatures they appear just NW of 11N/ 48W. CDO type structure is somewhat elongated to the NW. I'll call that light windshear. Not much, just enough to elongate the mid levels. NE quadrant is still lacking mid to high level clouds. Low level clouds are visible. Probably the dry air or SAL in the NE quadrant. Long loop doesn't really reveal much more than the short loop. Two other small areas to watch. The North Central GOM coastal area... front moving south with High Pressure over the N GOM. And the convective system just off the SC Coast. Minor areas, and close to land... but it's nearly August and anything is possible in August. edit: While the CDO type area certainly appears detached frrom the outer banding clouds. The speed at which the center is increasing areal coverage is amazing. One other note. I hope that Clark can offer a comment here. The clouds on the western semicircle appear to be wrapping around clockwise toward the Equator. Early indicator of an Equatorial Outflow Channel?0414Z 99L Floater Page 99L Dvorak long loop 99L Dvorak Short Loop |