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99L is definitely throwing off more convection (source SSD) tonight; question is: how much of this is result of diurnal effects and how much is strengthening. I wouldn't be surprised if we woke up to a TD, though. Given it's pre-TS strength, models shouldn't be that good yet at predicting it's growth and motion, but what I'm seeing shows it growing nicely through the next few days across almost all models. Uniform westward motion is predicted. GFDL doesn't seem to be initializing it yet. As I said, it's early. Track and strength really isn't going to be good for another day or two, probably (until it hits TS strength, I haven't found models very reliable). Nice catch with Skeetobite, AmateurJohn - someone should tell him. |