A part of the latest AFD out of Tallahassee on the GOM mess.... this probably will prove to be much needed rain for the panhandle...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF
THE CWA EXTENDING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF. TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...EXPECT THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES TO SLIDE NORTHWARD
OVER AND TOWARD THE CWA. A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH JUST WEST-NORTHWEST OF TAMPA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BIG BEND TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. WILL SHOW LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION SOUTH OF MOBILE AND TRACKING IT NORTHWARD TOWARD PANAMA
CITY. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE CWA AND PLENTY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL
KEEP POPS NEAR CLIMO.

...Part of the TAE AFD @ 9:15pm...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
915 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
PRETTY MUCH A CLASSIC DISTURBED DAY ACROSS THE NE GULF AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. CURRENTLY...THE TROUGH IS LOCATED IN OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND EXTENDS INTO NE FLORIDA...SE GEORGIA AND ON INTO
THE ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH IS OBSERVED QUITE WELL BY THE LATEST
UPPER-AIR RUNS...TBW HAS DEEP SW FLOW...WHEREAS TAE HAS EASTERLIES
THROUGH 500MB. RADAR LOOP SEEMS TO INDICATE A SMALL CIRCULATION IN
APALACHEE BAY. LITTLE MOVEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. MY LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1010-1011MB LOW LOCATED IN THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA.