Steve H1
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Aug 14 2007 11:35 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also

Yes, I definitely don't like some of the models that I've seen for Dean. I certainly don't want to go through what we did for Frances and Jeanne again. The models will be ping-ponging around with this storm, but the question will ultimately come down to whether there will be enough ridging in the western Atlantic to turn Dean back on a WNW track after it cuts through the islands or will the projected eastern trough stay through the week next week. The other option is if Dean stays far enuf south of the islands to remain unaffected by any weaknesss in the ridge or trof. I believe he will come toward the Greater Antilles and be in a position north of Hispaniola next week. But the key is, what is the setup to his north mid-week next week? We have a lot of time to watch this situation, but considering its the 2nd week of August I don't like the setup. If this was the second week of September, I would say this would be one for the upper east coast or the fish. Strangely enuf though, there have been numerous cold fronts coming through New England, and one is expected again on Monday. Maybe this can turn him away. We can hope


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