Agreed.

Looking at the CMC, it is showing Dean eroding the ridge as he powers through it, which doesn't make sense. Powerful hurricanes sometimes do power through, but generally prefer not to. As with most things in physics, things take the path of least energy, and pushing through a ridge is rarely a path of least energy.

The rest of the models keep Dean south of the ridge or right on the edge of the ridge, but don't have him cross the ridge. I think they make more logical sense, but there is no telling exactly how strong the ridge will be until we are closer, nor how strong Dean will be.

As long as the ridge stays intact and there is no ridging west of Dean, he's most likely to keep to the south of the ridge.

The next question is: toward the end of the period, how far west will the ridge extend? Will it allow Dean to swing north into the east coast, or will it keep Dean pushed south into Florida?

It is too far out to know any of this; it is all speculation based on the dynamical models.