Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Aug 28 2007 10:49 PM
Re: ready

A few comments, largely restating a lot of what HF had to say with a bunch of different words (hey, it was good stuff, and I can go with that!)...

94L: it may well be a storm, but it's embedded in one of the strongest SAL outbreaks of late right now. Low-latitude runner for now; let's see what happens once it gets to the Caribbean and the dust has had a chance to settle and/or mix out.

Carib disturbance: kinda reminds me of some of those pesky disturbances of 2005 that ended up spawning Bret, Gert, and Jose (among others). If it follows a similar trajectory, it's not out of the realm that it does something similar to that.

Carolinas disturbance: starting to get to that time of year where frontal boundaries make it far enough south to get interesting when they stall out over the Gulf Stream. It's already got a better-defined feature about which convection can develop and a system can be born as compared to the last case we had of this (northeast Gulf). Plugging my own WRF model for a second, it did suggest this morning that this will linger around for the next three days and slowly develop. Like the Caribbean disturbance, not out of the realm of possibility.

Wave train: two features of note, one due south of the Cape Verdes and another due east of them along the coast of Africa. SSTs are still below normal out there but at or above typical thresholds; it's the vertical instability associated with the strong ridge out there that is now the main problem. The models (GFS and ECMWF) are starting to get that 'look' to them, developing multiple features out that way over the next two weeks. Climo would argue for that alone, but so would the overriding atmospheric conditions.

The wave coming off the coast is probably too far north, though it does have a nice reflection about 12N/10W; the one south of the Cape Verdes will probably follow a similar path to 94L albeit without as much dust to contend with. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of these two eventually develop, with attention then turning to another wave about 14N/10E late in the week.

All of the atmospheric features that we'd normally want to see for a sustained active period in the tropics -- particularly in the deep tropics -- are starting to come together. I agree with HF's comment of "something" being out there tomorrow and possibly two "somethings" by Thursday and will go a step further to suggest a third "something" by Labor Day. Whether these somethings are more like the most recent 99L and don't really get going or if they end up being classified tropical systems, well... I'll leave that guessing game to everyone else.



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