weatherguy08
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Aug 31 2007 02:52 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean

That's one thing I am wondering about. About how fast will this thing move. Because again, if you look on the CIMSS map, there is a potential for a northward jog during the next 24 hours. In my opinion, I do not think this will move it very far to the north but it could delay its westward movement. In other words, it could buy the system some time before hurrying off to the west. But I agree, we should for sure continue to watch trends from the models and of course like I said earlier, if the NHC decides to insert the Recon data into the models, we could see a shift in the guidance. Also, the breakdown of the high over the eastern CONUS is forecast to occur on Day 7 (next Friday) which is a very long way off. My point being that it may not be too late for our storm to "enter" the weakness as it will take 5 - 7 days to traverse the Caribbean. Remember that Dean which was cruising across the Caribbean, if my memory is right, it took it four days to go from the Windwards to the Yucatan. So if the system takes that northward jog, which if it does I would predict it to last 12 - 24 hours, it could delay the system an extra day in moving across the Caribbean.


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