Hmmm...Well, the 06Z runs of the BAMS, BAMM, BAMD, and the Clipper (Climo and persistance model...not a reliable model) should be out soon. Mean time, I am very interested in seeing the 00Z Nogaps when it comes out. The 00Z GFDL has moved north a fair amount in the last run. Indicating a landfall about 50 miles north of whare Dean came in, but south of Cozumel. General tendancy is toward a subtile recurvature at the end of the track. The UKmet is much faster (probably too fast)...and a bit more concerning if it remains persistent in future runs. It is now showing a recurvature toward the NW and NNW into the central Gulf. With the GFS coming in at 00Z about 50-100 miles north of the NHC at 00Z...if the Nogaps moves northward on the 00Z...Then the NHC 11PM forecast track will be totally outside the guidance envelope (With particular respect to the "reliable models") on the southern end and a track update may be required at 5AM... We should know more about that soon...Like I mentioned earlier...the Windshield wipers are on!

In general, the compromise of the BAMS, BAMM, and BAMD have not bee bad in recent years as far as a consensus track...If they do not shift further north on the 06Z runs...the combination of them, the GFDL, the UKMET, and someothers may place a new track more towards Cozumel (a touch south of there)...with the GFS as a Southern Outlier and the CMC as an extreme southern outlier...But the CMC does not get as much attention for its track as the other big models.