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well, 5pm leaves a few questions... seems a few models like HWRF, etc. leave NHC wondering... but the track was slightly shifted to the north... looks like its going to come down, what will happen with the high in the GOM... will it stayed centered in GOM, or move to the east some? Sounds like to me, that NOAA9 might be schedule to fly in GOM/Western Carb in a few days? THE FORECAST HINGES ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDL/HWRF ALLOWS A HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD NEAR FLORIDA AND CAUSES A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF FELIX IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAINTAIN FELIX ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. |