Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 03 2007 01:41 PM
Re: Felix and More

Looks like it's weakened some, as seen on satellite.

Recon found:

116
URNT12 KNHC 031739
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062007
A. 03/17:23:00Z
B. 14 deg 14 min N
078 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2675 m
D. 118 kt
E. 005 deg 6 nm
F. 109 deg 114 kt
G. 014 deg 008 nm
H. 953 mb
I. 7 C/ 3050 m
J. 19 C/ 3038 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. LLOSED WALL
M. C8

N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 1206A FELIX OB 06
MAX FL WIND 114 KT N QUAD 17:20:50 Z

Also note that the surface low of 953mb was located where there were 33kt winds (based on dropsonde data), so the actual pressure is probably lower.

EDIT:

Officially Category 4 at 2pm.

New microwave out - the core looks like it is undergoing complete reorganization - no sign of a well defined eye.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc07/ATL/06L.FELIX/tmi/tmi_85h/1degreeticks/full/Latest.html

My guess is a combination of dry air entrainment and temporarily cooler (relatively) SSTs has resulted in the eye unable to sustain itself without an ERC, and as there was no 2ndary eyewall forming, it is going through an entire reorganization instead. I suspect in a few hours as it hits another very warm water zone will see it restrengthen and reform a well defined, possibly larger, eye.

You can see the heat potential here: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...00709030600.GIF



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