Well, honestly the models are beginning to converge on an east coast hit so I believe the NHC will have to take it a little more seriously than they might otherwise.. as all I see is a nice low level swirl/center on visible that is too far east I think to make that dip down under the high and get pushed back towards land.

Unless ...the storm forms further south.. or moves further south.

But, with that many models turning back to the west.. you have to figure they see something we don't.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200799_model.html