I will say 2 things regarding intensity and track:

1. For intensity, the convection is very close to the LLC, so I believe
that once shear lessens, as the latest TWO says that conditions will become
more favorable, rapid strengthening is likely with a building ridge to the north.
Several models make this a hurricane and GFDL brings it to Category 2.
That is not impossible given the warmth of the gulfstream waters and the several
days this system has over the water.

2. As for track, I do not see this going out to sea. As we have seen with
Felix and Dean, the early long-range models out 3-5 days tend to
underestimate the ridge. Therefore, I think the track and model
consensus should shift substantially to the left, increasing
the threat to the carolinas, and depending on the ridge, possibly
even georgia or florida. This early in the forecast, you cannot rule
these areas out.

Convection as certainly been impressive, and it is likely to consolidate
closer and closer to the low level circulation as shear lessens.