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In the 11PM Discussion there is to be found a potentially critical new piece of information regarding the official forecast thinking tonight. BASED ON RADAR FIXES THE CURRENT MOTION...030/05 IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. (We have already concluded as much) HUMBERTO IS MOVING AROUND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER TEXAS SHOULD CAUSE A NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. (Here it is) BEYOND THAT TIME...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH COULD BYPASS HUMBERTO...OR ITS REMNANTS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AFTER 48 HOURS. As per some models, Humberto may attempt to loop back around into or back nearly into the GOM. Of course, if this starts to verify, would have huge implications for potential widespread flooding and/or potential regeneration/other strike possibilities. Something to keep our eyes on, to be sure. It's worth noting that these current 65MPH max. sustained winds remain in a fairly small sliver of the storm. Nonetheless, if you are in this band, currently still offshore, it's going to basically feel like a hurricane, regardless of whether or not Humberto gets the next bump. |