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I can't think of too many systems that almost tripled in strength within a 12 hour period, that's for sure. As good as the NHC's track has been for the last several storms, they seem to have missed it a bit with Humberto, particularly in terms of intensity, forecasting a 50-60mph tropical storm and getting an 85mph hurricane. The track has also been consistantly left of the forecast, and even now it appears to be doing the same thing - 7am advisory has Humberto moving NE at 12, while it looks to me on radar to be moving almost due east over the last hour. A more southern track will result in less weakening, I believe, since the land in this part of Louisiana is at best not much above sealevel. |