cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 14 2007 05:58 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms east of islands

I think Humberto's stripped remnant surface low is actually still headed at least a bit farther east, and just now may be entering west-central Alabama as it is, with most of his mid/upper level remnants, including the bulk of the precipitation, well to the east and northeast of that location.
Radar Huntsville, Al

x-Humberto has latched on to the quasi-stationary frontal track, and has been riding it like a hobo on a train. There is an approaching cold front to the north of this, which may be helping nudge him/it back to the south, but my best guess is that it's unlikely to be pushed right over NOLA if that were to happen... already probably too far east for this. And, it appears to me to be equally likely, or perhaps even a bit more likely, to ride the front all the way to the east coast, or southeast like Ga/Fl, and not the GOM.

I suspect, perhaps, something more Humberto-related to watch over the next 48 hours or so is the persistent feeder band, now identified as a trough draped from Humberto's remnant surface low, that extends well into the northwestern GOM. It keeps firing showers and a few thunderstorms off along its entirety.

I guess as a post script on Humberto, I sure wouldn't want to forget that he is still floating around out there, tho. And with so many models having been insisting on bringing him back into the GOM to rekindle at least a little bit, there's certainly more than just our eyeballs and best guesses looking out for this possibility.




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