Looking at the 12Z Model Runs, it appears that some of the 12Z runs, especially the BAM Models and the CLIPER5, are initializing the system to far to the north and west. The 12Z discussion from the NHC says that the center of circulation is "located...near 26N, 79 west." The models are initializing the system as far north as 27.5 N, 80 W. On this page, http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/, I tend to favor the solutions by the Late-Cycle track guidance and the GFS Ensembles as it appears that these models are initializing the system about right. This puts landfall between the mouth of the Mississippi River and the LA-TX Border, so basically Louisiana. Also, the latest HPC guidance is bring a low pressure to near Houston, TX by days 5 and 6. I favor a track more westerly than northerly. My prediction is for a landfall near the Louisiana-Texas border on Saturday or Sunday. As for intensity, I would expect a strong tropical storm or minimal category one hurricane at landfall. GOM waters are warm (SST's in the mid 80s) and wind shear looks like it will remain relatively low.

My prediction in summary: landfall near the Louisiana-Texas border on Saturday afternoon as a 70 MPH tropical storm.