Hunter, you are a pretty lucky duck...and so has been the northern 2/3 of the state rainfall wise. Thise southern end has not seen a lot with this. I continue to sit only a 100 miles or so from the low level center (as seen in recon or in Shortwave imageryas being off the Charlotte/Sarasota County Line). Unfortunately...we've had a few showers, but seen la nada otherwise and we really need it too.

Looking at the overall picture tonight. I forecast absolutely NO subtropical and/or tropical development now. The Upper Level Low remains in the drivers seat as far as energy goes. That ULL has moved NW'erly toward the Florida Panhandle and is robbing the surface feature of all its chances. The heavy shower and thunderstorm activity remains entangled with it, as seen in the radar reflection...is all ULL activity. It is interrupting the surface low (That recon has been following), and the ULL and the surface feature are not stacked any longer. Therefore, unless the surface low re-forms under the ULL ( which may or may not occur) there is no chance of development on a subtropical level. If the Surface low does redevelop...it will have a very short amount of time to accomplish what the present low had started (The cold core-warm core transition). Likewise, if the upper level low peels off to the NW and leaves the current surface low behind (and in the area we have been tracking), that is not a fovorable circumstance. The Water Vapor imagery shows very hostile conditions approaching via very dry air and SW'erly winds. Under that influence, the surface low will likely fade away under those dynamics even if it gets leftbehind (WV Loop Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html ).

That said, I'll go all out on this one and say that the ULL will move intothe Alabama/Miss/Extreme Western Panhandle Area. Nothern Florida to Eastern Louisianna will get good rain...However, the surface reflection of this system will not develop into a tropical or subtropical system based on the current trends...