dem05
(User)
Fri Sep 21 2007 04:02 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System

Between Clark, Hunter, Hugh, the NHC Outlook...Probably been put in my place a bit for good reason. I think Clark would agree that the NWS has a slogan of track it til it is gine whe it comes to severe weather events and needless to say, 93L is not gone so 0% may be overzellous on my part. Reformation/restacking is definately not impossible either...I just decided that if something happened in that department, development might not have enough time based on cold core/warm core transition process...That's the specific point where I could be very wrong if something develops.

As Clark pointed out, there are not a lot of good night vision friends out there tonight. Our best one may be the shortwave...On it, I can still pickup a very...very weak signature of a low off of Tampa that the NHC comments on in the TWO. If everyone in the Florida Penninsula faced west and sneezed...it is small enough that it could dissipate or get shoved intothe "Hot Pocket" (Now that is just me trying to be funny here). That said, you decide, here is a link of the shortwave loop ( http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html ), notice the very...very small vorticity west of Tampa. Also notice how the overall flow is changing...The rest of the gang may be up on a possible reformation.

I hit the nail on the head with this bugger last night...but I get the feeling that it'smy turn toget fooled tonight. That said...I'll up the anty to a 15% chance of development...but I still don't think it has the right stuff and I'd be cuatious to go any higher. Anyhow and as well advertised...Name, no-name...the end effects will be the same. That said, prepare for and expect some showery/stormy weather from SE Louisiana to the North Part of Florida.



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