looks can be deceiving, and like clark and others have noted... there really isn't any surface obs to go from... except when next recon arrives, which i think is not that to far off?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=tbw&loop=yes

the feeder bands just point inward to the ULL/MID low... and looks like its has won another round against that surface low that was west of Tampa... with the "new" one, that may have or not mixed down to the surface there that shows up on radar at 10-15k ft. SE of Aplach., Fl. If this is true... then my forecast would shift to the right some.... seeing some good lightning there is that northern band close to that circulation on radar.

I do see alot of dry over Florida being pulled up... but also there is alot of tropical moisture to being brought up from the south...

If this holds for another 4-6 hrs... then i would expect them to pop out watches and warnings, along the northern gulf coast, and upgrade this to atleast a Sub-Tropical system.... in the 5am adv.