system is going over the yucatan. that's one of the more tropical friendly places a system can pass over.. at least for developing stuff. u/a pattern looks ok for the next couple of days, so we could have another of those flash-in-the-pan type systems. models either curve it up or slap it sw into mexico.
pattern might be a little favorable for stuff in the central atlantic to act up, with some ridging building up there. shear in the subtropical atlantic is predicted to reach destructive levels over the next couple of weeks, so any early recurvatures or paths that stray from the deep tropics would likely be suicidal. this time of year the source region for u.s. threats usually shrinks down to caribbean-to-gulf storm tracks. barring anything that might pop up in the bahamas ahead of frontal systems, stuff developing further out in the atlantic is no longer likely to be a threat.
HF 1535z22september