Looks like the official word is as many of us were expecting. The 11PM came down to whether or not to begin advisories on TD12, or Karen. As the discussion states:

2004 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF
THE DEPRESSION AND THE QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS
WERE AROUND 25 KT AT THAT TIME. SINCE THEN...DEEP CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB
AND SAB SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THERE WAS SOME
SPREAD IN THE CENTER LOCATION OF THESE ESTIMATES...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.

As for future track --- I'm only buying into the first 60 hours until we get some richer data in. What is more, as weathernet mentions, 12 is quite possibly going to be one of those large and strong enough to create their own environments, and thus to some degree, dictate their direction.