story next week ought to be whatever is in front of karen and karen itself. karen looks like it's going to hold out against the upper trough pretty well, and early next week it should be through it. assuming survival, nothing but a big ol' ridge in the western atlantic all next week. the ones that almost die and then come back can sometimes be the real bad ones. ingrid got ripped up by shear a while back, and it could happen just the same way again. hope so at least. a lot of the guidance is going to start coming further west with karen over the next couple of days.. should get a big hairier. how deep a system is south of bermuda in 3-4 days should determine whether it's hung and drifting in the upper trough axis or into the wheelhouse.
these latin-sounding storms in the gulf are playing games just lately. whereas humberto took days to organize but went ballistic just off the texas coast, lorenzo looks like it's going to make the run to hurricane strength before landfall as well. like it's predecessor it's a tiny storm and not likely to have a very wide swath of influence.
a lot of the globals are showing a coastal storm stuck under the ridge ahead of karen as the current upper trough swings through quickly and leaves a fairly large inverted trough in its wake. that might be a focal point or it could just as easily be a big messy nothing like the current one strung from florida to new england.
globals still trying to pop one more out near the cape verdes before last call. this late in september they usually stop rather abruptly.
HF 2152z27september